Thoughts on Navigating an Uncertain Environment
Last spring, things in the grain world were a mess. Huge swaths of the country were late planting or not planting at all. The general sense was that...
In the grain business, it’s easy to get distracted by the things we wish we could control. Prices, timing, market moves - these often feel just out of reach. But the most successful grain businesses don’t waste time chasing the impossible. Instead, they focus on what can be done - practical, disciplined actions that lead to long-term profitability and stronger farmer relationships.
Here’s a clear-eyed look at what you can and cannot do in the grain business—and why knowing the difference is one of the most important steps you can take.
YOU CANNOT | YOU CAN |
Predict prices | Guide growers to take simple, consistent actions that lead to better outcomes over time |
Help farmers by slashing your margins | Support farmers and your community by remaining a financially strong business long term |
Sell the best basis every time | Strengthen your knowledge of grain values and sell with confidence |
Set the best spread every time | Consistently connect basis purchases and sales in a disciplined and profitable way |
Find an algorithm to make decisions for you | Get more comfortable and confident in making informed decisions |
Keep positions straight in your head | Build strong, simple position tracking and management routines |
See every rally coming | Have a plan, communicate with your lender, and be ready for seldom |
Last spring, things in the grain world were a mess. Huge swaths of the country were late planting or not planting at all. The general sense was that...
Planning with a Purpose
A common refrain throughout my time and travels in the grain business is the concept of “selling the carry.” This is roundly regarded as a good thing...